Decoding: A turbulent Used Car market in 2025 driven by 5 major trends
Disrupted by the pandemic and then shaken by fluctuations in the new car market, used car sales regained some stability in 2024—but this may not last. autobiz highlights five major trends that could once again impact and unsettle the sector in 2025.
Toward a market decline…
By the end of November 2024, used car registrations were up compared to 2023 (+3.6% over 11 months), but they remained below the “normal” pre-COVID levels (4.93 million units in 11 months in 2024 versus between 5.23 and 5.31 million between 2017 and 2019).
This growth is also showing signs of slowing, despite the strong performance of professional sales (+5.9% since the beginning of the year).
« It’s highly likely that we’ll observe a decline in the overall market to a level between 4.7 and 5.1 million vehicles in 2025 (compared to a 2024 finish at 5.3 million, at the lower end of our forecasts from last year),”
explains Emmanuel Labi, CEO of autobiz.
... driven by an overall decline in supply
The uncertainty surrounding fiscal policies on new vehicles (NV), combined with the current challenges in that market, is likely to continue driving demand for used vehicles (UV), particularly recent ones, due to the lack of accessible alternatives in the new vehicle segment.
At the same time, autobiz has observed a decline in professional inventories over the past few months. With just over 408,000 units under 7 years old in stock at the end of October, professionals have reached the lowest level in over four years. This is a far cry from the more than 510,000 used vehicles that were the norm at the end of 2019 and the start of 2020, just before the global pandemic.
This trend is expected to accelerate in the coming months, due to inventory replenishment through returns from short- and long-term rentals. These vehicles, registered between 2020 and 2023, originate from three of the worst years in the NV market over the past 30 years, marked by the Covid crisis and subsequent electronic component shortages.
Thus, it is not a decline in demand but rather a lack of supply that could constrain the market next year.
The return of price inflation…
Traditionally, this growing imbalance between supply and demand is expected to have a significant impact on prices.
“As we anticipated last year, prices dropped sharply in the first half of 2024, with cars entering the market being priced €400 lower than those already on sale (compared to an average of €250 pre-COVID). Since this summer, this trend has reversed (in October, the ‘repricing’ index rose back to -€350). With a potential vehicle shortage and sustained demand, it is not unlikely that this trend could accelerate in the coming months,”
explains Emmanuel Labi.
A gradual return to a range between -€250 and €0 in the first half of 2025 seems plausible. It is also not out of the question that, in the second half of the year, price inflation—an unprecedented trend in 50 years, observed only during the 18 months between 2022 and 2023—could resurface.
… except for electric vehicles
If inflation occurs, this phenomenon is unlikely to impact fully electric used vehicles (BEVs). While the increase in new BEV sales is too recent to significantly affect the overall used car market, electric vehicles are becoming a reality among recent models.
As of the end of October 2024, 14% of professional stocks under 4 years old consisted of BEVs, a remarkable rise compared to the same period in 2020, when they represented just 1% of stocks. These volumes are now substantial enough to generate reliable data, which reveals notable specifics related to the sale of these vehicles: on average, BEVs are 22% more expensive than their thermal counterparts and take 32% longer to sell.
According to Emmanuel Labi: “For 2025, we project a sustained increase in BEV stocks, which could prolong the challenges associated with selling these vehicles. This should encourage professionals to continue their marketing efforts to educate consumers while adopting a very active pricing strategy to mitigate the specificities of this market.”
A sustained demand for older vehicles
In a market far less stable than in the past, one element that has remained constant since 2020 is households’ preference for older used vehicles. Looking at the data from the first 11 months of 2024, nearly 54% of used vehicle registrations (53.8%) were for vehicles aged 8 years or older. This level aligns with figures recorded since 2022. Before the Covid crisis, however, these sales ranged at much lower levels (between 49.5% in 2019 and 52.5% in 2017). “Essentially, due to rising prices and broader issues affecting purchasing power, households are being compelled to choose older and higher-mileage cars than before.”
Emmanuel Labi concludes: “If supply and demand tensions emerge in 2025, as we hypothesize, professionals and the market as a whole should prepare for two phenomena: a stronger price resilience for vehicles over 8 years old compared to the rest of the market, and notable efforts required from professionals to source such vehicles, particularly through direct cash purchases from individuals.”
About autobiz
Since 2004, autobiz has been supporting all European players in the automotive industry with trade-in and used car data solutions. Its 320 employees improve every day the company’s unique knowledge based on 20 years of used car data history as well as web, software, tech and the used car business operational expertise. autobiz has offices in Paris, Berlin, Valencia and Milan. The company works with more than 20 leaders in the used car market (manufacturers, banks, leasing companies, auction houses…) as well as 5,000 points-of-sale in 22 countries across Europe.